ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN / RankWire.AI / – Pakistan accounts for approximately 48% of the population living in extreme poverty within the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAAP) region, according to the World Bank’s October 2026 economic update. This measure uses the international threshold of $3 a day in 2021 purchasing power parity terms. Between 2018-19 and 2024-25, Pakistan’s poverty rate at this level increased by 6.4 percentage points, making it the primary contributor to the region’s extreme poverty levels.
The World Bank indicated that Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen together account for another 47% of the MENAAP population living below the $3 daily threshold. When combined with Pakistan, these four nations make up roughly 95% of the region’s extreme poor. MENAAP now represents about 14% of the world’s extreme poor, surpassed only by Sub-Saharan Africa. It remains the only region within the World Bank’s classification where poverty levels are above pre-pandemic figures and continue to grow.
At the higher $4.20-a-day poverty line used for lower-middle-income economies, Pakistan also experienced a decline. The percentage of people living below this threshold increased by 3.2 percentage points from 2018-19 to 2024-25. According to World Bank data, the rate reached about 48% in 2024, up from 44.7% in 2018. The report attributes this worsening to factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2022 floods, inflation, currency depreciation, and extended economic adjustment periods.
Poverty levels intensify following multiple shocks
Recent findings follow a significant update to the World Bank’s global poverty database in March 2026. New household survey data from Pakistan increased the estimated MENAAP extreme poverty rate for 2024 from 11.8% to 14.4%, adding roughly 21 million individuals to the region’s total of those living in extreme poverty. In September 2026, the World Bank confirmed that MENAAP remained one of only two regions with extreme poverty rates exceeding 5%, alongside Sub-Saharan Africa.
Although Pakistan’s economy has shown some improvement from recent lows, poverty indicators continue to be high. The October regional update estimated Pakistan’s GDP growth at 3.7% for fiscal year 2025-26, with a projection of 3.8% for 2026-27. Real GDP per capita is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Inflation is forecasted at 7.1% in 2026, rising to 8.2% in 2027, following a lower rate in 2025.
Regional classification impacts the headline statistics
The 48% figure reflects the World Bank’s current classification of MENAAP, which has included Pakistan and Afghanistan since September 2025. Previously, these countries were categorized within South Asia by the World Bank. Pakistan’s government stated that this change was administrative and did not affect the country’s geographic identity or income classification. Finance Minister adviser Khurram Schehzad explained that the revised grouping altered regional poverty figures by integrating Pakistan’s large population into the MENAAP calculations.
The October update from the World Bank also indicated a weaker regional economy in 2026. It projected a contraction of 2.1% in MENAAP’s output after a 3.3% growth in 2025, with ongoing conflicts and disruptions affecting energy, logistics, and trade sectors. Conversely, developing oil-importing nations, including Pakistan, are expected to remain relatively resilient, with a growth forecast of 4.3% for 2026. Nevertheless, rising food and energy prices continue to undermine household purchasing power across many economies in the region.